White House spokesman Levitt said at a press conference on January 31 that the 25% tariff imposed on Canada and Mexico will be implemented from February 1, and the tariffs on China will also increase by an additional 10% on the same day. It is said that specific details will be announced by the afternoon of February 1. Subsequently, US President Trump made it clear in his answer to reporters' questions that the three countries have no way to avoid the entry into force of tariffs on February 1. Regarding the reasons for imposing tariffs on three countries, Trump cited issues such as trade deficits. Port Circle (ID: gangkouquan) believes that during the last round of Sino-US trade frictions, China's exports to the United States suffered a short-term setback, but the impact was partially offset through re-export trade. The additional tariffs may trigger a new round of trade war, and the subsequent further restructuring of the global industrial chain and supply chain. For the shipping industry, tariffs will affect the trans-Pacific trunk routes and will also affect the hot Latin American routes in recent years (the United States also imposes tariffs on Mexico), resulting in a decline in demand for China-US and China-Mexico routes. The further transfer of industries to Southeast Asian countries will increase the demand for routes within Asia and routes from Southeast Asia to North America. While the shipping industry is ushering in a reshuffle of the liner alliance, it also needs to adjust its route deployment, which will cause problems such as shift schedule disorders in the short term. Changes in route demand mean a change in port business. In fact, from 2022 to mid-2024, the proportion of business related to China-related businesses of Los Angeles Port, the largest container port in the United States, dropped sharply, from 57% to around 40%. After the new round of tariffs, some Chinese ports that rely on North American business may We will look for new growth opportunities in Southeast Asia. It is worth noting that there is still great uncertainty in subsequent tariff collection. During the campaign, Trump threatened to crack down on Chinese goods with tariffs of up to 60%, but did not act immediately after taking office, but ordered the government to study the issue. Levitt also added that Trump may decide to cancel tariffs on the three countries at any time, and said that the decision is entirely up to the president himself. The port circle will continue to pay attention to subsequent development.

美国白宫发言人莱维特在1月31日的记者会上表示,针对加拿大和墨西哥征收25%的关税将从2月1日起实施,对于中国的关税也将在同日额外增加10%。据称,具体细节将在2月1日下午前公布。

随后,美国总统特朗普在回答记者提问时明确表示,三国已经没有任何办法可以避免2月1日的关税生效。

关于对三个国家加征关税的理由,特朗普列举了贸易逆差等问题。

港口圈(ID:gangkouquan)认为,上一轮中美贸易摩擦期间,中国对美出口短期受挫,但通过转口贸易部分抵消了影响。本次加征关税可能会引发新一轮贸易战,随之而来的是全球产业链及供应链进一步重组

对航运业来说,关税将影响跨太平洋干线,也会波及近年来火热的拉美航线(美国同时对墨西哥加征关税),导致中美和中墨航线需求下降。产业进一步转移向东南亚国家,则会拉升亚洲区域内航线以及东南亚至北美的航线需求。集运业在迎来班轮联盟洗牌的同时,也要调整航线部署,短期内会造成班期紊乱等问题。

航线需求改变意味着港口业务的转变。事实上,自2022年到2024年年中,美国最大集装箱港洛杉矶港与中国有关的业务比例大幅下降,从57%降至40%左右,新一轮关税后,一些依赖北美业务的中国港口可能会向东南亚寻找新的增长机会。

值得注意的是,后续关税征收仍有很大不确定性,竞选期间,特朗普威胁要以高达60%的关税打击中国商品,但在上任后没有立即行动,而是命令政府研究该问题。莱维特也补充称,特朗普随时可能决定取消对三国的关税,同时表示这一决定完全取决于总统本人。港口圈将持续关注后续发展。


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